👥 CONDITIONAL

Платформа экспертов в Telegram

Expert marketplace with AI assistant and Telegram-based monetization

Category: marketplace
Date: 2026-03-20
ID: 274882d7…
AI Score ?Weighted result of 6 AI models. 65+ → GO, 50–65 → conditional, below 50 → NO-GO.
62/100
⚠ Conditional GO — risks exist, hypotheses need validation
Financial Dashboard — Key Numbers
Investment Required ?Total capital needed to reach break-even: servers, marketing, development.
$5,000
to get started
Break-even ?The month when monthly profit will cover all startup costs.
Month 15
from launch
MRR Target ?Monthly recurring revenue at which the project is considered successful and ready to scale.
$3,000
per month
Margin ?Share of each dollar remaining after infrastructure, APIs, and direct costs. 70%+ is healthy for SaaS.
96%
of revenue retained
Monthly Revenue Growth Forecast
Optimistic
Realistic
Pessimistic
Break-even Month 15
Unit Economics — Numbers per Customer
Revenue per Customer ?How much one customer pays per month (ARPU). The higher, the fewer customers needed for strong profit.
$9.99/mo
per customer avg.
Profitability ?Share of each dollar remaining after servers, APIs, and other direct costs.
~96%
of revenue retained
Break-even ?When startup costs will be fully recovered and the business begins generating net profit.
Month 14–16
to profitability
Customer Lifetime Value ?Total revenue from one customer over the entire relationship (LTV). Ideally 3× above acquisition cost.
$199.8
lifetime total
Max Acquisition Cost ?Maximum ad spend per customer while keeping the business model profitable (CAC target).
$30
per new customer
LTV / CAC ?Ratio of customer lifetime value to acquisition cost. 3× and above is healthy.
6.7×
✓ Above benchmark
Development Scenarios
Scenario Revenue by Month 6 Revenue by Month 12 Key Assumption
Pessimistic $41 $192 CAC выше прогноза, конверсия ниже 5%
Realistic $119 $550 По плану: CAC ≤ цели, churn ≤ 5%/мес
Optimistic $297 $1,375 Виральность сработала, CAC < цели в 2 раза
🛑 When to Stop the Project
K1
Zero conversion per channel
experiment.starts == 0 AND experiment.channel_views >= 1000
→ pause experiment
K2
CAC exceeds LTV threshold
avg_cpl_rub > 2000 AND total_starts >= 50
→ stop all paid traffic
K3
Budget exhausted
budget.remaining_telega <= 300
→ stop new campaigns and escalate
K4
No paying users after 200 starts
total_starts >= 200 AND paying_users == 0
→ pause traffic and fix paywall
K5
No data for 7 days
days_since_last_experiment_update >= 7
→ escalate check server
Milestones & Stages
M1
Первые данные CPL — Волна 1+2
In Progress
M2
CPL ниже kill threshold
Pending
M3
Первый платящий пользователь
Pending
M4
Аутрич старт — тёплые сообщения
Done
M5
6+ платящих ($60 MRR)
Pending
Investment & Exit Scenarios

Total Investment Needed

$5,000
to reach profitability
marketing $2,500
dev $1,250
infra $750
ops $500

Exit Options

  • Продажа при $5K MRR
    $2K–3K
    probability 40%
  • Bootstrap до $30K+ MRR
    $500K–$2M
    probability 25%
  • Закрыть на любой стадии
    $0 (опыт + код)
    probability 35%

Have your own idea?

6 AI models attack it from all angles and deliver an honest GO / NO-GO verdict with real numbers in 24 hours.

Validate for $39 →