⚖️ NO-GO

Арбитраж предсказаний

Arbitrage on prediction markets (Polymarket, Manifold)

Category: crypto
Date: 2026-03-30
ID: 48ce8a3e…
AI Score ?Weighted result of 6 AI models. 65+ → GO, 50–65 → conditional, below 50 → NO-GO.
43/100
✗ Below threshold — risks outweigh the potential
Financial Dashboard — Key Numbers
Investment Required ?Total capital needed to reach break-even: servers, marketing, development.
$5,000
to get started
Break-even ?The month when monthly profit will cover all startup costs.
Month 9
from launch
MRR Target ?Monthly recurring revenue at which the project is considered successful and ready to scale.
$3,000
per month
Margin ?Share of each dollar remaining after infrastructure, APIs, and direct costs. 70%+ is healthy for SaaS.
0–15% ROI/мес
of revenue retained
Monthly Revenue Growth Forecast
Optimistic
Realistic
Pessimistic
Break-even Month 9
Unit Economics — Numbers per Customer
Profitability ?Share of each dollar remaining after servers, APIs, and other direct costs.
0–15% ROI/мес
of revenue retained
Development Scenarios
Scenario Revenue by Month 6 Revenue by Month 12 Key Assumption
Pessimistic $128 $779 CAC выше прогноза, конверсия ниже 5%
Realistic $368 $2,227 По плану: CAC ≤ цели, churn ≤ 5%/мес
Optimistic $920 $5,567 Виральность сработала, CAC < цели в 2 раза
🛑 When to Stop the Project
K1
Нет конверсий после 100 кликов
leads == 0 AND clicks >= 100
→ пауза трафика, диагностика
K2
CAC превысил LTV × 0.5
cac > ltv * 0.5 AND leads >= 5
→ остановить трафик
K3
Два провала Gate
gate_failures >= 2
→ закрыть проект
Investment & Exit Scenarios

Total Investment Needed

$5,000
to reach profitability
marketing $2,500
dev $1,250
infra $750
ops $500

Exit Options

  • Продажа при $5K MRR
    $7K–12K
    probability 40%
  • Bootstrap до $30K+ MRR
    $500K–$2M
    probability 25%
  • Закрыть на любой стадии
    $0 (опыт + код)
    probability 35%

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