🔗 CONDITIONAL

Реферальный агрегатор

Referral program aggregator with automatic distribution

Category: marketplace
Date: 2026-03-27
ID: efc26453…
AI Score ?Weighted result of 6 AI models. 65+ → GO, 50–65 → conditional, below 50 → NO-GO.
52/100
⚠ Conditional GO — risks exist, hypotheses need validation
Financial Dashboard — Key Numbers
Investment Required ?Total capital needed to reach break-even: servers, marketing, development.
$632
to get started
Break-even ?The month when monthly profit will cover all startup costs.
Month 14
from launch
MRR Target ?Monthly recurring revenue at which the project is considered successful and ready to scale.
$3,000
per month
Margin ?Share of each dollar remaining after infrastructure, APIs, and direct costs. 70%+ is healthy for SaaS.
~95%
of revenue retained
Monthly Revenue Growth Forecast
Optimistic
Realistic
Pessimistic
Break-even Month 14
Unit Economics — Numbers per Customer
Profitability ?Share of each dollar remaining after servers, APIs, and other direct costs.
~95%
of revenue retained
Break-even ?When startup costs will be fully recovered and the business begins generating net profit.
Month 14–18
to profitability
Development Scenarios
Scenario Revenue by Month 6 Revenue by Month 12 Key Assumption
Pessimistic $48 $224 CAC выше прогноза, конверсия ниже 5%
Realistic $139 $641 По плану: CAC ≤ цели, churn ≤ 5%/мес
Optimistic $347 $1,602 Виральность сработала, CAC < цели в 2 раза
🛑 When to Stop the Project
K1
Нет конверсий после 100 кликов
leads == 0 AND clicks >= 100
→ пауза трафика, диагностика
K2
CAC превысил LTV × 0.5
cac > ltv * 0.5 AND leads >= 5
→ остановить трафик
K3
Два провала Gate
gate_failures >= 2
→ закрыть проект
What the AI Models Said
~
Grok: affiliate marketing переезжает в соцсети
(TikTok, Reddit, Discord) — SEO уступает
~
Gemini: сбор данных = главный барьер
, не кодинг. 5000 программ = гибридный подход (API + ручной ввод)
Investment & Exit Scenarios

Total Investment Needed

$1,000
to reach profitability
marketing $500
dev $250
infra $150
ops $100

Exit Options

  • Продажа при $5K MRR
    $7K–12K
    probability 40%
  • Bootstrap до $30K+ MRR
    $500K–$2M
    probability 25%
  • Закрыть на любой стадии
    $0 (опыт + код)
    probability 35%

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